Solar Flares article

These disturbances are superimposed upon the background solar wind and, if directed towards earth, are the proximate causes of potentially disastrous geomagnetic storms 2-6 days after leaving the sun.

Understanding space weather forecasts and the risk of solar storms
By Steve Tracton
Part II in series


A solar large flare erupts off the sun June 7, 2011 in space.

G1 S1 R1
G2 S2 R2
G3 S3 R3
G4 S4 R4
G5 S5 R5

The scale for each range from 1 (minimal activity) to 5 (maximum hazard) and are similar to the Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing hurricane intensity and Enhanced Fujita scale for measurin

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave

Despite recent improvements, observational systems and, especially prediction models, are in their early stages of development – comparable to when modern weather prediction analysis and forecast systems on Earth were in their infancy some 50+ year

Understanding space weather forecasts and the risk of solar storms
By Steve Tracton
Part II in series


A solar large flare erupts off the sun June 7, 2011 in space.

NOAA acknowledges the possible loss of ACE would constitute the ‘most serious gap’ in its space weather services by leaving the world without a vital early-warning system against a devastating solar storm.

Unfortunately and dangerously so, ACE is operating now 12-years past its design life with decreasing reliability of its sensors with a high risk of a complete failure without backup capability for two years at the very least.

Understanding space weather forecasts and the risk of solar storms
By Steve Tracton
Part II in series


A solar large flare erupts off the sun June 7, 2011 in space.

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

Understanding space weather forecasts and the risk of solar storms
By Steve Tracton
Part II in series


A solar large flare erupts off the sun June 7, 2011 in space.

Solar Wind: persistent, normal background stream of high-speed, ionized particles (mainly electrons and protons) ejected from the sun in all directions into interplanetary space.

G1 S1 R1
G2 S2 R2
G3 S3 R3
G4 S4 R4
G5 S5 R5

The scale for each range from 1 (minimal activity) to 5 (maximum hazard) and are similar to the Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing hurricane intensity and Enhanced Fujita scale for measuring the strength of tornadoes.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Space weather: conditions in space that effect Earth and its technological systems.

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): cloud of highly magnetized atomic particles (plasma) violently propelled from the upper layer of the sun’s atmosphere (corona) and sometimes associated with a sunspot group and/or solar flare.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

At present, even if we know for sure that a CME plasma cloud is directed towards Earth some days ahead, the effects on power grids, satellites, etc, depend upon the relative orientation (polarity) of the magnetic fields of the plasma and Earth.

Looking further into the future, United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama recently signed a memorandum of understanding for a coordinated US-UK partnership in delivery of space weather alerts.

Looking further into the future, United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama recently signed a memorandum of understanding for a coordinated US-UK partnership in delivery of space weather alerts.

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

Geomagnetic storm: large spikes in electrical currents in the atmosphere and on the ground induced by induced by interaction of Earth’s magnetic field with the solar wind supercharged by CMEs.

Radio blackouts are consequential primarily only to a relatively few dependent concerns and effects are short-lived (a few days or less).

Solar flares: short explosive releases of energy seen as bright areas on the sun that radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum, including x-rays and radio wave lengths particularly relevant to earth and technological system vulnerabilities.

Sunspots: cooler and darker areas on the surface of the sun which become most and less numerous (sun spot number), respectively, which follow an approximately 11 year cycle from minimum to maximum and back to minimum.

ACE is not only an integral component of the short term warnings, it is invaluable for providing observations for assessing the accuracy of current and prospective space weather prediction models (such as the physics based model mentioned above).

The first large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model is scheduled to fully transition form research to operations at SWPC in December.

Even if action is taken a few days ahead on the basis of a probabilistic estimate (provided by SWPC with unknown reliability) of a possible G4/5 geomagnetic storm, the ability to prepare and protect technologically vulnerable systems is currently extremely limited, to say nothing of the woeful lack of resources necessary to recover from disaster.

These disturbances are superimposed upon the background solar wind and, if directed towards earth, are the proximate causes of potentially disastrous geomagnetic storms 2-6 days after leaving the sun.

For the general user of space weather “situational awareness” SWPC issues current and forecast information in the form of scaled indices for three categories which are most relevant to the possible effects on electric power grids and satellite-based systems
Geomagnetic Storms: disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in the solar wind that blows by Earth.

In light of the severity of threat, understanding the basics of solar weather phenomena becomes important.

ACE is not only an integral component of the short term warnings, it is invaluable for providing observations for assessing the accuracy of current and prospective space weather prediction models (such as the physics based model mentioned above).

Important terms to be familiar with

Let’s begin by defining some key terms, which will be referenced later...

(I can’t help but wonder why so much justifiable media attention was given recently to the potential loss of a polar weather satellite, while the potential loss of ACE and need for DSCOVR seems too go unnoticed.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Sunspots: cooler and darker areas on the surface of the sun which become most and less numerous (sun spot number), respectively, which follow an approximately 11 year cycle from minimum to maximum and back to minimum.

Solar Radiation Storms: elevated levels of radiation that occur when the numbers of energetic particles increase.

(NASA/AP) Part I of this series, “Space weather: Are we ready for a solar strike?” reviewed the background and nature of the threats of space weather.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

G1 S1 R1
G2 S2 R2
G3 S3 R3
G4 S4 R4
G5 S5 R5

The scale for each range from 1 (minimal activity) to 5 (maximum hazard) and are similar to the Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing hurricane intensity and Enhanced Fujita scale for measuring the strength of tornadoes.

For the general user of space weather “situational awareness” SWPC issues current and forecast information in the form of scaled indices for three categories which are most relevant to the possible effects on electric power grids and satellite-based systems
Geomagnetic Storms: disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in the solar wind that blows by Earth.

A near simultaneous “extreme” hit on both power grids and satellites would be disastrous and unforgiving over extended periods and globally for whatever one views as the “normal” way of life.

ACE is not only an integral component of the short term warnings, it is invaluable for providing observations for assessing the accuracy of current and prospective space weather prediction models (such as the physics based model mentioned above).

For the general user of space weather “situational awareness” SWPC issues current and forecast information in the form of scaled indices for three categories which are most relevant to the possible effects on electric power grids and satellite-based systems
Geomagnetic Storms: disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in the solar wind that blows by Earth.

Sunspots: cooler and darker areas on the surface of the sun which become most and less numerous (sun spot number), respectively, which follow an approximately 11 year cycle from minimum to maximum and back to minimum.

Solar flares: short explosive releases of energy seen as bright areas on the sun that radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum, including x-rays and radio wave lengths particularly relevant to earth and technological system vulnerabilities.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

A description and effects for each of three categories used to assign the numbered value to indices is available on the SWPC website (no need to be concerned with the actual physical variable and frequency also shown).

They currently provide the basis for the one to three day official predictions of relevant phenomena issued by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), but are of questionable accuracy.

G1 S1 R1
G2 S2 R2
G3 S3 R3
G4 S4 R4
G5 S5 R5

The scale for each range from 1 (minimal activity) to 5 (maximum hazard) and are similar to the Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing hurricane intensity and Enhanced Fujita scale for measuring the strength of tornadoes.

A description and effects for each of three categories used to assign the numbered value to indices is available on the SWPC website (no need to be concerned with the actual physical variable and frequency also shown).

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

Space weather: conditions in space that effect Earth and its technological systems.

ACE is not only an integral component of the short term warnings, it is invaluable for providing observations for assessing the accuracy of current and prospective space weather prediction models (such as the physics based model mentioned above).

Unfortunately and dangerously so, ACE is operating now 12-years past its design life with decreasing reliability of its sensors with a high risk of a complete failure without backup capability for two years at the very least.

ACE is not only an integral component of the short term warnings, it is invaluable for providing observations for assessing the accuracy of current and prospective space weather prediction models (such as the physics based model mentioned above).

It is an ambitious program to create the world’s first space weather model capable of forecasting terrestrial weather as well as indicating where, when, and for how long space weather effects will persist in the upper atmosphere.

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

Geomagnetic storm: large spikes in electrical currents in the atmosphere and on the ground induced by induced by interaction of Earth’s magnetic field with the solar wind supercharged by CMEs.

Additional Reading:

As the sun awakens, the power grid stands vulnerable and Space weather graphic (from today’s Washington Post print edition)
Solar flare photo gallery
Do solar storms threaten life as we know it?

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

My forthcoming post, Part III in this series, will examine more closely the potential effects and consequences of solar storms, as well as what can and cannot be done to protect, prepare and recover from a major event.

Geomagnetic storm: large spikes in electrical currents in the atmosphere and on the ground induced by induced by interaction of Earth’s magnetic field with the solar wind supercharged by CMEs.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Sunspots: cooler and darker areas on the surface of the sun which become most and less numerous (sun spot number), respectively, which follow an approximately 11 year cycle from minimum to maximum and back to minimum.

Intermediate levels of danger depend upon the relative polarity of Earth and plasma magnetic fields between these two extremes.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): cloud of highly magnetized atomic particles (plasma) violently propelled from the upper layer of the sun’s atmosphere (corona) and sometimes associated with a sunspot group and/or solar flare.

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

Important terms to be familiar with

Let’s begin by defining some key terms, which will be referenced later...

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Looking further into the future, United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama recently signed a memorandum of understanding for a coordinated US-UK partnership in delivery of space weather alerts.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

For the general user of space weather “situational awareness” SWPC issues current and forecast information in the form of scaled indices for three categories which are most relevant to the possible effects on electric power grids and satellite-based systems
Geomagnetic Storms: disturbances in the geomagnetic field caused by gusts in the solar wind that blows by Earth.

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

Radiation storms, as seen from chart, can render satellite systems useless and thereby satellite-dependent technology we now take for granted (most notably GPS).

At present, even if we know for sure that a CME plasma cloud is directed towards Earth some days ahead, the effects on power grids, satellites, etc, depend upon the relative orientation (polarity) of the magnetic fields of the plasma and Earth.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Solar Wind: persistent, normal background stream of high-speed, ionized particles (mainly electrons and protons) ejected from the sun in all directions into interplanetary space.

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

The first large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model is scheduled to fully transition form research to operations at SWPC in December.

Radio blackouts are consequential primarily only to a relatively few dependent concerns and effects are short-lived (a few days or less).

Solar Radiation Storms: elevated levels of radiation that occur when the numbers of energetic particles increase.

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): cloud of highly magnetized atomic particles (plasma) violently propelled from the upper layer of the sun’s atmosphere (corona) and sometimes associated with a sunspot group and/or solar flare.

Geomagnetic storms are the most important of the three items with regard to the question of “life as we know it” , endangerinh both power grids and satellites.

Solar Wind: persistent, normal background stream of high-speed, ionized particles (mainly electrons and protons) ejected from the sun in all directions into interplanetary space.

Even if action is taken a few days ahead on the basis of a probabilistic estimate (provided by SWPC with unknown reliability) of a possible G4/5 geomagnetic storm, the ability to prepare and protect technologically vulnerable systems is currently extremely limited, to say nothing of the woeful lack of resources necessary to recover from disaster.

Unfortunately and dangerously so, ACE is operating now 12-years past its design life with decreasing reliability of its sensors with a high risk of a complete failure without backup capability for two years at the very least.

The first large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model is scheduled to fully transition form research to operations at SWPC in December.

----------

Understanding space weather forecasts

While far less than adequate, SPWC products and services are valuable to a wide array of customers responsible for space weather dependent systems such as satellites, GPS, power companies, airlines, and companies insuring against losses due to solar storms (Lloyds of London recently began offering coverage for damages due to space weather).

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

Sunspots: cooler and darker areas on the surface of the sun which become most and less numerous (sun spot number), respectively, which follow an approximately 11 year cycle from minimum to maximum and back to minimum.

In light of the severity of threat, understanding the basics of solar weather phenomena becomes important.

Understanding space weather forecasts and the risk of solar storms
By Steve Tracton
Part II in series


A solar large flare erupts off the sun June 7, 2011 in space.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

NOAA acknowledges the possible loss of ACE would constitute the ‘most serious gap’ in its space weather services by leaving the world without a vital early-warning system against a devastating solar storm.

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

The first large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model is scheduled to fully transition form research to operations at SWPC in December.

Solar flares: short explosive releases of energy seen as bright areas on the sun that radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum, including x-rays and radio wave lengths particularly relevant to earth and technological system vulnerabilities.

A description and effects for each of three categories used to assign the numbered value to indices is available on the SWPC website (no need to be concerned with the actual physical variable and frequency also shown).

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

Intermediate levels of danger depend upon the relative polarity of Earth and plasma magnetic fields between these two extremes.

----------

Understanding space weather forecasts

While far less than adequate, SPWC products and services are valuable to a wide array of customers responsible for space weather dependent systems such as satellites, GPS, power companies, airlines, and companies insuring against losses due to solar storms (Lloyds of London recently began offering coverage for damages due to space weather).

Under certain alignments, even the most intense plasma disturbance will pass earth with virtually no effect whereas, under others, the threat is real and potentially disastrous.

Coronal Mass Ejection (CME): cloud of highly magnetized atomic particles (plasma) violently propelled from the upper layer of the sun’s atmosphere (corona) and sometimes associated with a sunspot group and/or solar flare.

If NOAA does get full funding (likely a big if), DSCOVR would be ready for launch by late 2013, probably too late for the spin up to the maximum in the current solar cycle.

Looking further into the future, United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama recently signed a memorandum of understanding for a coordinated US-UK partnership in delivery of space weather alerts.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

NOAA acknowledges the possible loss of ACE would constitute the ‘most serious gap’ in its space weather services by leaving the world without a vital early-warning system against a devastating solar storm.

The first large-scale, physics-based space weather prediction model is scheduled to fully transition form research to operations at SWPC in December.

Although a solar strike may not happen tomorrow, it is clearly in the realm of possibilities anytime over the next few years.

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

Monitoring and forecasting space weather


The NOAA and NASA space weather observation networkA fleet of NOAA and NASA satellites, as well as ground-based systems, continually monitor solar events and provide the observations for analysis of solar activity and necessary for input to forecast models to predict the nature, path, and intensity of solar storms that might impact Earth.

NOAA acknowledges the possible loss of ACE would constitute the ‘most serious gap’ in its space weather services by leaving the world without a vital early-warning system against a devastating solar storm.

ACE is not only an integral component of the short term warnings, it is invaluable for providing observations for assessing the accuracy of current and prospective space weather prediction models (such as the physics based model mentioned above).

Such basic information is the focus of this post, the second part in my three-part series.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

A near simultaneous “extreme” hit on both power grids and satellites would be disastrous and unforgiving over extended periods and globally for whatever one views as the “normal” way of life.

It is an ambitious program to create the world’s first space weather model capable of forecasting terrestrial weather as well as indicating where, when, and for how long space weather effects will persist in the upper atmosphere.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Its loss would be comparable to losing critical radar data for specific short-term tornado warnings and knowing only the general area and time frame tornadoes are possible.

Understanding space weather forecasts and the risk of solar storms
By Steve Tracton
Part II in series


A solar large flare erupts off the sun June 7, 2011 in space.

2008 report on space weather by the National Academy of Sciences

Even if action is taken a few days ahead on the basis of a probabilistic estimate (provided by SWPC with unknown reliability) of a possible G4/5 geomagnetic storm, the ability to prepare and protect technologically vulnerable systems is currently extremely limited, to say nothing of the woeful lack of resources necessary to recover from disaster.

(I can’t help but wonder why so much justifiable media attention was given recently to the potential loss of a polar weather satellite, while the potential loss of ACE and need for DSCOVR seems too go unnoticed.

Even if action is taken a few days ahead on the basis of a probabilistic estimate (provided by SWPC with unknown reliability) of a possible G4/5 geomagnetic storm, the ability to prepare and protect technologically vulnerable systems is currently extremely limited, to say nothing of the woeful lack of resources necessary to recover from disaster.

Important terms to be familiar with

Let’s begin by defining some key terms, which will be referenced later...

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

They currently provide the basis for the one to three day official predictions of relevant phenomena issued by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), but are of questionable accuracy.

My forthcoming post, Part III in this series, will examine more closely the potential effects and consequences of solar storms, as well as what can and cannot be done to protect, prepare and recover from a major event.

Radiation storms, as seen from chart, can render satellite systems useless and thereby satellite-dependent technology we now take for granted (most notably GPS).

Solar flares: short explosive releases of energy seen as bright areas on the sun that radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum, including x-rays and radio wave lengths particularly relevant to earth and technological system vulnerabilities.

Radiation storms, as seen from chart, can render satellite systems useless and thereby satellite-dependent technology we now take for granted (most notably GPS).

----------

Understanding space weather forecasts

While far less than adequate, SPWC products and services are valuable to a wide array of customers responsible for space weather dependent systems such as satellites, GPS, power companies, airlines, and companies insuring against losses due to solar storms (Lloyds of London recently began offering coverage for damages due to space weather).

A large cloud of particles flew up and then was pulled back down to the sun's surface.

In the scale for geomagnetic storms, G1 is considered “minor” with minimal effects on power systems and satellites.

Radiation storms, as seen from chart, can render satellite systems useless and thereby satellite-dependent technology we now take for granted (most notably GPS).

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

Radiation storms, as seen from chart, can render satellite systems useless and thereby satellite-dependent technology we now take for granted (most notably GPS).

Solar flares: short explosive releases of energy seen as bright areas on the sun that radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum, including x-rays and radio wave lengths particularly relevant to earth and technological system vulnerabilities.

Under certain alignments, even the most intense plasma disturbance will pass earth with virtually no effect whereas, under others, the threat is real and potentially disastrous.

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

In my humble opinion, although the loss of a polar satellite would be felt, the weather community can get by without it.

It is an ambitious program to create the world’s first space weather model capable of forecasting terrestrial weather as well as indicating where, when, and for how long space weather effects will persist in the upper atmosphere.

Its loss would be comparable to losing critical radar data for specific short-term tornado warnings and knowing only the general area and time frame tornadoes are possible.

----------

Understanding space weather forecasts

While far less than adequate, SPWC products and services are valuable to a wide array of customers responsible for space weather dependent systems such as satellites, GPS, power companies, airlines, and companies insuring against losses due to solar storms (Lloyds of London recently began offering coverage for damages due to space weather).

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

A description and effects for each of three categories used to assign the numbered value to indices is available on the SWPC website (no need to be concerned with the actual physical variable and frequency also shown).

Additional Reading:

As the sun awakens, the power grid stands vulnerable and Space weather graphic (from today’s Washington Post print edition)
Solar flare photo gallery
Do solar storms threaten life as we know it?

Even if action is taken a few days ahead on the basis of a probabilistic estimate (provided by SWPC with unknown reliability) of a possible G4/5 geomagnetic storm, the ability to prepare and protect technologically vulnerable systems is currently extremely limited, to say nothing of the woeful lack of resources necessary to recover from disaster.

Effects become “severe” at the G4 level and “extreme” when reaching G5.

I concluded that major solar storms have the potential to: 1) occur with limited advanced warning, 2) strike with insufficient means to protect vital earth and satellite based systems, 3) be disastrous to technology dependent societies and 4) leave in their wake totally inadequate resources and capabilities to recover for a periods ranging from weeks to years – at a cost of trillions of dollars.

Note: The White House budget request for 2012 includes funding for NOAA to convert a satellite, the Deep Space Climate Observatory (DSCOVR), initially slated for climate research (but grounded by politics) to a space weather system able to replace ACE in providing warnings of solar storms.

Additional Reading:

As the sun awakens, the power grid stands vulnerable and Space weather graphic (from today’s Washington Post print edition)
Solar flare photo gallery
Do solar storms threaten life as we know it?

Even if action is taken a few days ahead on the basis of a probabilistic estimate (provided by SWPC with unknown reliability) of a possible G4/5 geomagnetic storm, the ability to prepare and protect technologically vulnerable systems is currently extremely limited, to say nothing of the woeful lack of resources necessary to recover from disaster.

It is an ambitious program to create the world’s first space weather model capable of forecasting terrestrial weather as well as indicating where, when, and for how long space weather effects will persist in the upper atmosphere.

Unlike the terrestrial weather elements we are all familiar with (moisture, temperature, pressure, etc.), the key players are electromagnetic energy (light, x-rays, etc), magnetic fields, and plasma consisting of ionized or charged atomic particles permeated by a magnetic field separate from that of the sun and earth.

Unfortunately and dangerously so, ACE is operating now 12-years past its design life with decreasing reliability of its sensors with a high risk of a complete failure without backup capability for two years at the very least.

Looking further into the future, United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama recently signed a memorandum of understanding for a coordinated US-UK partnership in delivery of space weather alerts.

Critically, the only source of information on the alignment of the magnetic fields is NASA’s Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite and, therefore, the only system able to provide advanced warning of geomagnetic storms.

My forthcoming post, Part III in this series, will examine more closely the potential effects and consequences of solar storms, as well as what can and cannot be done to protect, prepare and recover from a major event.

Sunspots: cooler and darker areas on the surface of the sun which become most and less numerous (sun spot number), respectively, which follow an approximately 11 year cycle from minimum to maximum and back to minimum.

A description and effects for each of three categories used to assign the numbered value to indices is available on the SWPC website (no need to be concerned with the actual physical variable and frequency also shown).

They currently provide the basis for the one to three day official predictions of relevant phenomena issued by the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC), but are of questionable accuracy.

In my humble opinion, although the loss of a polar satellite would be felt, the weather community can get by without it.

Solar Wind: persistent, normal background stream of high-speed, ionized particles (mainly electrons and protons) ejected from the sun in all directions into interplanetary space.

Solar Radiation Storms: elevated levels of radiation that occur when the numbers of energetic particles increase.

Despite recent improvements, observational systems and, especially prediction models, are in their early stages of development – comparable to when modern weather prediction analysis and forecast systems on Earth were in their infancy some 50+ years ago.

G1 S1 R1
G2 S2 R2
G3 S3 R3
G4 S4 R4
G5 S5 R5

The scale for each range from 1 (minimal activity) to 5 (maximum hazard) and are similar to the Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing hurricane intensity and Enhanced Fujita scale for measuring the strength of tornadoes.

In the scale for geomagnetic storms, G1 is considered “minor” with minimal effects on power systems and satellites.

Despite recent improvements, observational systems and, especially prediction models, are in their early stages of development – comparable to when modern weather prediction analysis and forecast systems on Earth were in their infancy some 50+ years ago.

Unfortunately and dangerously so, ACE is operating now 12-years past its design life with decreasing reliability of its sensors with a high risk of a complete failure without backup capability for two years at the very least.

G1 S1 R1
G2 S2 R2
G3 S3 R3
G4 S4 R4
G5 S5 R5

The scale for each range from 1 (minimal activity) to 5 (maximum hazard) and are similar to the Saffir-Simpson scale for categorizing hurricane intensity and Enhanced Fujita scale for measuring the strength of tornadoes.

Solar Wind: persistent, normal background stream of high-speed, ionized particles (mainly electrons and protons) ejected from the sun in all directions into interplanetary space.

It remains to be seen to what extent the model adds value.

Solar flares: short explosive releases of energy seen as bright areas on the sun that radiate throughout the electromagnetic spectrum, including x-rays and radio wave lengths particularly relevant to earth and technological system vulnerabilities.

(I can’t help but wonder why so much justifiable media attention was given recently to the potential loss of a polar weather satellite, while the potential loss of ACE and need for DSCOVR seems too go unnoticed.

Looking further into the future, United Kingdom Prime Minister David Cameron and President Barack Obama recently signed a memorandum of understanding for a coordinated US-UK partnership in delivery of space weather alerts.

Even if action is taken a few days ahead on the basis of a probabilistic estimate (provided by SWPC with unknown reliability) of a possible G4/5 geomagnetic storm, the ability to prepare and protect technologically vulnerable systems is currently extremely limited, to say nothing of the woeful lack of resources necessary to recover from disaster.